Latest SMRC Survey: Ridwan Kamil Getting Stronger, Prabowo Decreasing


Public support for the Governor of West Java Ridwan Kamil as a presidential candidate or presidential candidate for 2024 is getting stronger. This is based on the results of a survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

The former mayor of Bandung has received strong support in the last 1.5 years. Meanwhile, support for Sandiaga Uno actually decreased.

"From the results of observations and aspects of SMRC, there are a number of candidates who have experienced increases and decreases in respondent support," said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani in a written statement received in Bandung, Monday (22/8/2022).

"In the last 1.5 years, from March 2021 to August 2022. Support for Ridwan Kamil has increased. Sandi (Sandiaga Uno) has weakened," he continued.

For information, SMRC has re-released the results of the survey on the presidential and vice presidential candidates) in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, Ridwan Kamil's name continues to creep among three other presidential candidates, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto.

The results of the presidential election survey conducted by SMRC will only be followed by a few candidates. However, so far there has been no definitive presidential candidate because the registration of candidates for the 2024 presidential election will only be carried out in October-November 2023.

Irvan explained that support for the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo in the semi-open simulation rose from 8.8 percent to 25.2 percent. Meanwhile, support for DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan rose from 11.2 percent to 14.4 percent.

Meanwhile, public support for the Minister of Defense (Menhan) Prabowo Subianto has actually decreased. Meanwhile, support for Ridwan Kamil tends to increase.

"For Ridwan Kamil also tends to strengthen from 4.8 percent to 6 percent. Prabowo tends to decline from 20 percent to 16.7 percent, while other figures have not made significant progress," said Irvan.

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The SMRC survey showed that in the semi-open question format of 43 names, Ganjar received the most support at 25.5 percent. Then followed by Prabowo 16.7 percent, Anies 14.4 percent, Ridwan Kamil 6 percent, AHY 3.8 percent and other names under 3 percent, and 15.1 percent who don't know.

The figure of Ridwan Kamil, who is often close to the results of his survey with Sandiaga Uno, is now considered superior.

The strengthening of support for Ridwan Kamil was also reflected in the closed-choice simulation of 11 names in which Ganjar received the most support at 27.1 percent, followed by Prabowo 19 percent, Anies Baswedan 15.6 percent, Ridwan Kamil 8.5 percent, AHY 3.5 percent. and other names under 3 percent, who don't know 15.3 percent.

This survey shows that Ridwan Kamil is also unrivaled by AHY and Erick Tohir in the top four positions.

"Ridwan Kamil strengthened, AHY weakened, Khofifah and Erick did not experience significant changes," continued Irvan.

Irvan said that although the Constitution explains that only parties can nominate the president, currently there are a number of names of figures who are not from the party elite and are also widely referred to as potential figures as presidential candidates.

They are figures who have high electability or have a positive level of public acceptance (likeability).

According to him, based on the survey results, so far Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Ridwan Kamil, Sandiaga Uno, and then there are figures who have been publicly proposed by the party as one of the presidential candidates (Andika Perkasa).

As well as regional heads with a large voting population (Ridwan Kamil) or having a large social base (Khofifah Indar Parawansa with a Nahdlatul Ulama social base), as well as a figure who looks quite active in socializing himself as a presidential candidate (Erick Thohir).

SMRC said the population of this survey were all Indonesian citizens who had the right to vote in the general election, namely those who were 17 years old or older, or were married when the survey was conducted.

From that population, 1,220 respondents were selected randomly (multistage random sampling). The response rate (respondents who can be interviewed validly) is 1,053 or 86 percent.

A total of 1,053 respondents were analyzed. The survey error rate with this sample size is estimated at ±3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level (assuming simple random sampling). Field interviews in the last survey were conducted on 5 to 13 August 2022

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