SMRC Survey: Ganjar Pranowo In The Top, Anies is Decreasing

The name of the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, is firmly in the top position in the results of the latest survey of presidential candidates (candidates) released by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) in August 2022.

In several open and closed simulations, the PDIP politician defeated two of his competitors in the second and third positions, namely Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.

In an open simulation, Ganjar even excels President Joko Widodo. He would be in the top position if the Presidential Election (Pilpres) were held today with an electability of 17.6 percent.

Below Ganjar are Prabowo Subianto with 12.6 percent, Jokowi with 12.5 percent, Anies 9.1 percent and Ridwan Kamil with 4.3 percent.

"In a spontaneous response, about 32.4 percent of the population did not know which presidential candidate they wanted to choose. Ganjar got the most votes 17.6 percent, then Prabowo 12.6 percent, Jokowi 12.5 percent, Anies Baswedan 9.1 percent, Ridwan Kamil 4.3 percent, and other candidates below 2 percent," said the SMRC release, Monday (22/8).

In the simulation, Ganjar's electability continues to rise as Jokowi's electability declines in the last few surveys since May 2021. With this trend, SMRC suspects that Jokowi's spontaneous support will move to Ganjar.

Then in a closed simulation of five names, Ganjar also outperformed other names such as Prabowo, Anies, Airlangga Hartarto, and Puan Maharani. Ganjar's electability stands at 30.1 percent, Prabowo 27.7 percent, and Anies 20.7 percent.

Ganjar's electability trend in this closed survey is positive or has increased. The previous SMRC survey, Ganjar's electability, was at 23.1 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo dropped from the original 33.3 percent. Meanwhile, Anies was stagnant at 19.9 percent.

"From December 2021 to August 2022 in a closed-choice simulation of 5 names, support for Ganjar tends to increase from 26.4 percent to 30.1 percent. Prabowo tends to fall from 30.9 percent. Anies, Puan and Airlangga are stagnant".

The SMRC survey was conducted during the period 5-13 August 2022 on Indonesian citizens aged over 16 years or already married. The survey was conducted by means of face-to-face interviews with 1,220 respondents selected at random (multistage random sampling).

Meanwhile, the survey response rate or respondents who can be interviewed validly is 1053 or 86 percent with a survey margin of error of ± 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Meanwhile, the results of a survey released by the Indonesia Polling Stations (IPS) on August 10 put the Gerindra Party Chairman Prabowo Subianto ahead with the highest electability as a presidential candidate compared to other figures.

Prabowo won with an electability of 30.2 percent. He outperformed Ganjar with 19.8 percent and Anies with 18.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the Grassroots Strategic Consulting (ARSC) survey placed Ganjar and Anies in the top two positions as potential presidential candidates in 2024.

Prabowo is only in third position with an electability reaching 11.18 percent. In fourth position there is still the name Ridwan Kamil with an electability of 7.18 percent.

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